China’s polyethylene (PE) trade flows showed a clear seasonal pattern in the January–February 2026 period, with activity largely influenced by disruptions surrounding the Lunar New Year. While January remained relatively stable due to pre-holiday shipment activity, February saw a notable slowdown across both imports and exports.

Imports fall to yearly lows amid holiday slowdown

China’s PE imports—including LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE, and mLLDPE—declined across the two-month period. Imports slipped by around 2% in January on a monthly basis, followed by a sharp drop of about 21% in February, marking the lowest monthly level in a year. On an annual basis, January imports rose by over 5%, but February recorded a steep decline of approximately 24%.

In value terms, imports exceeded $1.2 billion in January before falling significantly to just above $966 million in February. The decline reflects reduced trading activity, temporary shutdowns in downstream industries, and logistical constraints during the extended holiday period.

Supplier dynamics also shifted during this period. Saudi Arabia emerged as China’s largest PE supplier with a combined share of 18.7%, followed by the United States at 16.2% and the UAE at 12.7%. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may alter supplier rankings in the coming months, with the US potentially gaining a larger share.

Exports show resilience despite monthly dip

China’s PE exports followed a similar seasonal trend, rising by more than 3% in January—marking the third consecutive monthly increase—before declining by over 14% in February due to holiday-related disruptions.

Export revenues reached around $108 million in January before easing to nearly $92 million in February. Despite this monthly decline, annual performance remained strong, with exports surging by about 90% in January and maintaining a solid 43% increase in February.

This growth reflects China’s expanding production capacity and its increasing presence in global PE markets.

Regional demand remains strong

Southeast Asia and South Asia continued to be the primary destinations for Chinese PE exports. Vietnam accounted for 12.5% of total exports during the period, followed by Bangladesh at 8.5% and Thailand at 7%.

At the same time, Chinese suppliers are expanding into more distant markets such as Brazil, Russia, and Turkey, indicating a broader diversification strategy.

Overall, while short-term trade flows were impacted by seasonal factors, China’s PE export momentum remains strong, supported by growing capacity and competitive positioning in global markets.

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