Producers are considering force majeure declarations following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes that damaged critical export infrastructure this week.
Major Baltic Ports Face Severe Disruptions
Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s primary oil export terminals, has halted loadings since mid-week after repeated strikes and a fire that remains unresolved.
Shipments from the port are unlikely to resume until mid-April, according to market sources.
Nearby Primorsk has also sustained damage but has partially resumed operations. However, overall export capacity remains significantly affected.
Together, these ports handle a major share of Russia’s seaborne crude and refined product exports.
Significant Share of Export Capacity Impacted
Current estimates suggest that up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is offline due to a combination of port disruptions, pipeline issues, and tanker-related constraints.
Despite these challenges, higher global oil prices are helping offset the operational losses.
Higher Prices Support Revenues
With Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel and Russian crude prices also rising, oil revenues have increased.
This has allowed the government to reconsider fiscal plans, including delaying budget tightening and reassessing spending priorities.
Supply Risks Add Pressure to Global Markets
The disruptions come at a time when global oil markets are already under strain due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
Russia may attempt to reroute exports through alternative routes such as Black Sea ports, but capacity limitations could restrict these efforts.
Market Outlook
With supply disruptions affecting multiple regions, global oil markets are becoming increasingly tight.
Any further escalation or prolonged outages could intensify supply shortages and support higher prices in the near term.
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