US-led rally pushes prices higher
The latest price surge was largely fueled by the US market, where increasing FAS Houston benchmarks—reported at $1000/ton or above—lifted export offers significantly. Dutiable K67 prices rose by $50/ton compared to the previous week. Some offers tested levels as high as $1100/ton CIF Turkey for both US and Chinese cargoes, though these levels saw limited buying interest unless linked to prompt shipments.
Earlier deals around $1030/ton appear to have created a psychological ceiling, making further aggressive price hikes difficult to sustain.
European suppliers remain largely absent
In the duty-free segment, price increases were even sharper, with weekly gains of up to $100/ton, supported by the continued absence of South Korean shipments due to feedstock constraints linked to the ongoing conflict.
European producers also tested higher levels, with some offers reaching $1300/ton CIF or more, though these were widely considered unworkable. Similarly, Egyptian material priced around $1200/ton CIF failed to attract buyers, highlighting a growing gap between seller expectations and buyer affordability.
Specialty grades tighten further
In the domestic market, rising import costs continued to push local prices upward. K67 increased by another $60/ton during the week, while specialty grades such as K58 and K70 saw even steeper hikes of $100/ton or more due to tighter availability.
The widening price gap between standard and specialty grades reflects stronger supply constraints in niche segments. Market participants also raised concerns over possible stock withholding by distributors, although others attributed tightness to genuine supply limitations.
Buyers retreat after restocking phase
On the demand side, activity has weakened. Following aggressive restocking in previous weeks, many converters stepped back after the Eid holiday, adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Falling oil prices, linked to easing geopolitical tensions, have slightly weakened the cost-driven bullish narrative. At the same time, converters are facing challenges in passing higher resin costs to export markets, particularly in the Middle East, further dampening buying interest.
Outlook: firm but cautious
In the short term, the market is expected to remain firm due to limited supply and elevated global cost structures. However, buyer resistance is likely to grow, especially if energy markets continue to soften and geopolitical tensions ease further.
Over the medium term, market direction will depend on the evolution of the Middle East conflict and overall demand conditions. A normalization in supply combined with weak demand could cap further price increases or even trigger a correction, while persistent tightness may keep prices elevated if supply disruptions continue.
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